What you thought: Peyton Manning shocks with his poor fourth quarter play

On our Facebook fan page, a few fans gave their insight on our weekly discussion board. Let's see how the predictions came out.

Jordan Trustchal:

To me it is very easy to pick Indy to smoke Drew Brees and the Saints. After watching the Saints squeak by Minnesota last week, I can say that I do not have much confidence in them. Their passing game struggled in my opinion, although Brees did come away with 3 TD's. Brees had 197 passing yards, two passing TD's under ten yards, and the other was a screen pass that Thomas took to the house. One thing that was missing was the deep threat of Colston, Meachem, and Henderson. The two longest passing plays were to the RB's Bush and Thomas!

Defensively, I didnt think that they looked too bad, but this is not going to be INT Favre! Manning is going to bring the guns. Without the turnovers that the defense "forced" out of the hands of Adrian Fumblson the Saints are sitting at home watching 40 yr old Favre throwing bombs.

On the otherside, Manning and the Colts look spectacular in the 2nd half of their game. Manning was throwing 'frozen ropes' to his recievers play after play. He looked like the NFL MVP that we have known! Plus, the recieving core can straight up PLAY! Between Wayne, Garcion, Collie and Clark you may have the best sets of hands we have seen on one team in a long time. Let us not forget that the Colts put up 30 pts. and picked apart the number 1 ranked defense putting up 375+ passing and over 100 yards rushing! I dont think that the Saints D-line is going to touch Manning, and that is not how you beat the Colts!

The way the game was going, the post here was looking correct. Then something happened, Drew Brees went off, and Peyton Manning collapsed. The Colts lost the game because of Manning's turnover and poor clock management at the end of the game. I'm sure everyone is with me when I say, I didn't see that one coming.

Marc Lopez:

Saints over Colts 34-27.

The Saints score is almost dead on, but the Colts weren't as efficient as expected. Good job on taking the underdog.

RJ Schacht:

Indianapolis over New Orleans 30-24. Peyton will do what Peyton does.

The only problem with this post: Manning didn't do what Manning does. He made mistakes no one expected. The result was a Saints Super Bowl win.

Thank everyone for participating on the discussion board this week. Check out next week's topic, which will be posted tonight. Hope everyone enjoyed the game.

First half breakdown

The Saints only have 22 total yards on the ground, and Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas both couldn’t gain a yard for the touchdown. The only good news for the Saints comes from the passing game. Drew Brees is 13 for 18 for 138 yards for the half, which is good considering the running game has been absent and Dwight Freeney is playing much better than anticipated. Brees has been extending drives with key third down throws, and Peyton Manning hasn’t had many snaps in the second quarter. Therefore, the score is still close at halftime, at only 10-6. Without the running game, the Saints must win the time of possession battle in the second half. In the second quarter, The Saints held the ball for almost 13 minutes and the Colts didn’t score. If the Colt’s offense cannot get on the field, it may be the best defense the Saints have against Peyton Manning and the passing attack.

Let’s look at some keys in the first half:

Saints:

1.) “The Saints must run the ball like they did during the season.”

With only nine yards rushing in the first quarter, the Saints haven’t been running well against the Colts so far. They are now a one-dimensional offense. Without a running game, Drew Brees has to continue to throw well, and the Saints’ receivers must catch the ball.

2.) “The Saints must win the turnover battle.”

The secondary hasn’t played well for the Saints. They haven’t forced any turnovers, and the best defense has been the offense so far. If the Saints want to hold the Colts, they have to get some turnovers late in the game.

3.) “The secondary has to play better at controlling the big play and continue to make plays.”

The Saints haven’t made any game-changing defensive plays, and Pierre Garcon made a big catch down field. So far, the Saints have looked worse than the No. 26 ranked pass defense. If they don’t play better, Brees has to continue to keep the Colts offense off the field.

Colts:

1.) “The offensive line must protect Peyton Manning. “

Manning hasn’t been sacked in the game, and he has been pressure only a handful of times. The result: Dallas Clark and Austin Collie have been open in the middle of the field numerous times.

2.) “The Colts must stop the run.”

Wow. Not only have the Colts stopped the run; only 22 rushing yards for the Saints, they stuffed both Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush on the one-yard line to stop the touchdown. If the Colts keep this up, it will be hard for the Saints to score many points in the game.

3.) “Drew Brees must be pressured.”

Brees has only been sacked once, and he has had time to throw the ball, despite Dwight Freeney playing so much better than expected. The Saints offensive line has done well double teaming Freeney and Robert Mathis. The Colts have to get more pressure on him, or he will make up for the lack of the running game.

Smith's Super Bowl pick

On the eve of Super Bowl XLIV, it is time to announce my pick. The last couple of years have shown us that the NFL has gained the parity it sought.

Last year we saw the Cardinals give the Steelers a fight to the finish after many felt Arizona would make an early exit from the playoffs.

The year before, we saw the mighty New England Patriots run the table and bring an undefeated season into the Super Bowl, only to be out done by a the underdog New York Giants and their tough defensive line.

In Super Bowl III Joe Namath and the New York Jets beat the heavily favored Baltimore Colts. My point with these examples being never count out the underdog.

This year, the Indianapolis Colts are five-point favorites over the New Orleans Saints. Like Super Bowl III, the Colts are the team with everything to lose and many people are discounting their opponent. It was a big mistake against the Jets and it is a mistake against the high-powered New Orleans passing attack.

My pick is the Saints (+5). I think the Saints will win, but they will need to get pressure on quarterback Peyton Manning, control the ground game and avoid mistakes. It won’t be a runaway by any means – the Colts shouldn’t be underestimated any more than the Saints. If New Orleans can get an early turnover early and get a lead, we could very easily see the Colts scramble to get back in the game, making them prone to mistakes of their own.

The Saints aren’t the popular pick, but either were the Giants when they beat the Patriots - that’s why they play the game. New Orleans is deserving of their Super Bowl appearance and if they avoid mistakes, they’ll be deserving of their Lombardi Trophy.

Saints 35 – Colts 28

Iozzo's Super Bowl XLIV breakdown and prediction: The bombs will be dropping in Miami

Colts keys to the game:

1.) The offensive line must protect Peyton Manning. If he gets any extra time, he can slice up the 26th ranked pass defense in the league. The Colts need to control the clock and allow Manning to do his thing.

2.) The Colts must stop the run. It is as simple as that. The Saints went from 8-8 to 13-3 for reasons other than Drew Brees and the passing game. They ranked sixth during the regular season in the running game, and the Colts need to make the Saints a one-dimensional team. Stopping the run would mean being able to play pass, which would lower Brees’ chances of converting the big play.

3.) Brees must be pressured. If Freeney can’t play or isn’t 100 percent, then Robert Mathis has to step it up. Brees cannot receive extra time to throw, because he will find an extra man downfield. The Saints have many threats to catch the ball, and the Colts defense will not be able to cover all of them.

Saints keys to the game:

1.) The Saints must run the ball like they did during the season. The best way to beat the Colts is with the running attack. If you can make the defense think, it hinders their proclivity to blitz, and it opens up the deep play action pass. The Saints are only ranked seventh out of 12 teams this postseason.

2.) The Saints must win the turnover battle. With a passing defense ranked 26th, the only way they can beat Manning is by forcing turnovers. The Saints ranked third in interceptions, first in interceptions brought back for touchdowns, fifth in fumble recoveries and first in fumbles brought back for touchdowns. However, they ranked 25th in total yards given up and 13th in total points scored by the opponent. What does this tell you? They are a defense that relies on the turnover to stop drives.

3.) The secondary has to play better at controlling the big play and continue to make plays. The passing defense allowed 284/yds per game this postseason, and they would have allowed more than the 42 points if the three interceptions weren’t made. In fact, the Minnesota Vikings are probably here facing the Colts if they didn’t make the picks. If the Saints want to win, they have to contain the deep threat. At least then, if they get into a shootout, it will take Manning a little longer to work his way down the field.

Prediction:

Colts 31, Saints 28

In Super Bowls past, we have seen a few good games and many duds. The Colts and Saints are looking more and more like an offensive shootout. I believe Freeney’s injury will hurt the Colts pass rush and allow Brees extra time to throw. Although I think the Colts will do a decent job at stopping the run, the hindered pass rush will open the door to also go outside with the run. Freeney may become a target in this one. On the Colts side, the Saints have no answer for Dallas Clark or Austin Collie, and I think Manning picks them a part all day. The recipe calls for an aerial assault on Sun Life Stadium. The one push that makes me choose the Colts in a free-for-all is the presence of Peyton Manning. If he has the ball in a close game late, I am betting on him to come through. The Saints only hope is to keep that from happening.

Super Bowl preview: New Orleans Saints

New Orleans Saints: 15-3

How they got here: The Saints, along with the Colts, got the NFL talking about the possibility of another 16-0 season. New Orleans got to 13-0 before losing to the Dallas Cowbys. The Saints lost their last two games of the season also, but still easily won the NFC South division.

In the playoffs, the Saints cruised past the Arizona Cardinals before locking horns with the formidable Minnesota Vikings in the NFC title game. New Orleans capitalized on five Viking turnovers, forced overtime and Garrett Hartley’s XX-yard field goal sent the Saints to the franchise’s first Super Bowl.

All season, the Saints enjoyed a high-powered offense, which ranked first in both points scored (31.9 per game) and yards (403.8 per game). The majority of the offense was generated by the arm of all-pro quarterback Drew Brees. New Orleans averaged 272.2 passing yards per game – ranking the squad fourth in the NFL. Running back Pierre Thomas complimented Brees’ ability and the Saints ranked sixth in rushing yards during the 2009 season.

When the team got to playoffs, Brees continued to make it rain on the field, completing 63.5 percent of his passes and ringing up six touch downs and zero interceptions.

Five players to watch:

Drew Brees – If the Saints hope to win Super Bowl XLIV, they’re going to need their leader to continue to perform at the high level he has all year. Brees is both an on-field and off-field leader and they will certainly look to him for guidance as the franchise embarks on a new experience – the Super Bowl. Brees is certainly a top-tier quarterback and, if he falters, the Saints will also.

Darren Sharper – The only offense that can match New Orleans is Indianapolis. Luckily for fans, they will be able to see the two go head-to-head. Like Brees, Peyton Manning is not prone to mistakes. In order for the Saints to win, they will need to force turnovers. They would not be in the Super Bowl this Sunday had Minnesota secured the ball. Sharper anchors the New Orleans secondary and has a nose for the ball. New Orleans ranked 26^th in pass defense during the year, but will have to step up and try to slow the Colts’ offense the best they can. Sharper is probably the best candidate on the Saints D to come up with a big play. If so, momentum and the score could shift in favor of New Orleans.

Reggie Bush – With two powerful offenses and vulnerable defenses on the field, special teams could play a gigantic role in this year’s Super Bowl. Bush has proven his value as a punt returner throughout the year and took a punt return to the house during the Arizona playoff game. When the Saints are able to stop the Colts’ attack, field position will be a hot commodity. Bush could put New Orleans in a position to get an easy score, whether it be a field goal or a touchdown. Look for special team – Indy’s or the Saints’ – to be the difference.

Garrett Hartley – The young kicker proved he won’t be easily rattled, when he lined up in OT in the NFC championship game and put the game-winner right down the middle of the uprights. It is unlikely the Saints will run away with the contest, so Hartley will need to be prepared to possibly kick another high-pressure field goal in the waning seconds – this time with the Lombardi Trophy on the line. For the same reason Bush’s efforts on special teams may be crucial, New Orleans may need to rely on the inexperienced kicker. He has a strong leg, he just needs to stay accurate.

Pierre Thomas – Perhaps the biggest question mark for both teams is the running game. So far this post season, the Colts and Saints main rushing threats have performed more or less equally. Thomas has rushed for 113 yards in the team’s playoff games, averaging 4.2 yards per carry. He’s scored one touchdown. On the other side, Joseph Addai has carried 27 times (the same total as Thomas) for 103 yards, an average of 3.8 yards a carry. He has not scored a rushing TD and fumbled once. The Saints best defense could be their rushing attack. If Thomas can find success on the ground and take time off the clock, it would significantly handicap the Colts’ chances of winning. Thomas needs to step up and take some of the load of Brees and at the same time keep the defense honest. If he makes the defense respect the run, more passing lanes will open for Brees. Also, if Indianapolis defensive end Dwight Freeney cannot recover from an ankle injury in time to play, the Saints could take advantage of his absence on the line.

The Saints will win the Super Bowl if …

Quite simply, everything goes right. New Orleans is a five-point underdog for a reason. The Colts are a better team. If the Saints can keep Manning off the field, force a turn over or two, run the ball successfully and not make mistakes, they will win the game (it’s that simple). Again special teams could play a huge roll and if the Saints start with better field position than the Colts it will make the aforementioned tasks easier to perform.

The Saints will lose the Super Bowl if …

They cannot stop Manning. The defensive staff and players have talked about “remember me” hits and look to deliver a few on the Indy all-pro. If Manning isn’t pressured he will pick apart the New Orleans secondary and utilize speedy Pierre Garcon, reliable Reggie Wayne and the most underrated player in the league Dallas Clark. Manning will win the game if he is not pressured.

Super Bowl Preview: Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis Colts: 16-2.

How they got here: They started the season 14-0 to clinch the AFC North and number one seed in the playoffs. On January 16th, they defeated the Baltimore Ravens 20-3 in the divisional round and then defeated the New York Jets 30-17 in the AFC championship on January 24th.

The Colts are here because of two reasons. The first is obvious, Peyton Manning. Coming into a season with both a rookie head coach and no Marvin Harrison, many people believed they would have trouble in a strong division. However, Manning had one of his best years, simply because he turned young receivers into legitimate threats (ie: Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon).

Manning completed 393 of 571 passes and threw for 4500 yards with 33 touchdowns and 16 interceptions during the regular season. The interceptions seem high; his fourth highest total in his career, but the thing to remember is he had to teach the young players to run routes. During the season, there were several plays where Collie or Garcon simply missed the play. They went outside instead of instead or left instead of right. Manning makes no excuses, but he probably has five or six fewer picks if his teammates were where they were supposed to be.

Even more impressive was the two playoff games. Manning complete 56 of 83 passes and threw for 623 yards with five touchdowns and only one interception. The best game came against the New York Jets, the best defense in the NFL. Darelle Revis, arguably the best corner this season, was thrown to repeatedly and beaten several times.

The second reason they are here is the improved run defense. The Colts have always had a good pass rush with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, but they have had a tough time containing the run in the past. They have ranked near the bottom for the last five seasons, including their Super Bowl championship season. Although they ranked only 24 in the league this year, they actually were much better than the ranking suggests. The last three games of the season, when they rested their starters, they gave up 589 yards on the ground to the Jaguars, Jets and Bills which increased their opponents' average to 124.5 rushing yds/game. If you subtract those numbers and games, they gave up 102.5 yds per game, which would have put them at ninth in the league behind the New York Jets.

The biggest way to see the improvement is the playoffs. They faced the No. 1 and No. 5 rushing offenses in the league, and they allowed only 86.5 yards rushing in the two games. The play of Manning and the rejuvenated rushing defense has made the Colts nearly unstoppable this season.

Five players to watch:

1.) Dwight Freeney – He is a key pass rusher on the Colts, and they need to get pressure on Drew Brees to slow the Saint’s passing game down. However, he has had an ankle injury and is listed as Questionable on the Colts injury list. Will he play and if he does, will he be effective enough on the outside?

2.) Dallas Clark – Since the Colt’s running game isn’t a threat, ranked 32nd during the season, they will need Manning to create first downs by screen passes and short slants. Clark is one of the best tightends in the league, because he blocks and catches well. They will need him to keep it up against the Saints if they want to keep Brees off of the field.

3.) Antoine Bethea – If the Colt’s want to stop the Saints passing attack, they need stellar play in the secondary. Bethea had 95 tackles, four interceptions and two forced fumbles during the regular season. As the Pro Bowl leader of the front seven, he must continue to play well and lead the others in doing so.

4.) Pierre Garcon – He has turned into a key deep threat for Manning during the season and playoffs. They will need his speed to create some quick scores against a Saint’s passing defense that ranked 26th during the regular season and 10 out of 12 during the postseason.

5.) Austin Collie – The other young receiver must be able to make the tough catches like he has all season. If Collie drops a few passes or doesn’t get open for short gains, The Saints will have more reason to double Clark. The Colts will need solid play from Collie if they want to move the ball consistently.

They will win the Super Bowl if…

Manning controls the tempo. The Colts were the best team in the league this year, and they are now in the Super Bowl facing the second best team in the league. However, both teams have weaknesses and had two weeks to prepare for them. For the Colts, they will win if Manning continues to be the best game manager in the game. We know he can throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns, but we also know he can win if he controls the clock when they have the ball. The best way to beat the number one offense in the league is to keep them off the field.

They will also win if the Saints cannot run the ball. The Saints ranked sixth in rushing this season. The Colts have already handled the fifth and first rushing offenses, but neither team had a quarterback as good as Drew Brees. The defense will have to limit the ground attack and put enough pressure on Brees to limit the damage. When you face the best offense, sometimes holding to a few points less than their average is enough.

They will lose the Super Bowl if…

Manning cannot move the chains. The Colts need Manning to win. Look at the two games he rested, Curtis Painter didn’t exactly light it up. When you don’t have a rushing attack, you need a hall of fame quarterback.

They will also lose if the Saints have all day to throw. Forget the running game, the Saints will find open players down the field and score a lot of points even if they can’t run the ball. Dwight Freeney’s status is huge because of this reason.